Claims that Icelandic volcano Katla is 'on the cusp of a colossal eruption' that would dwarf the ash cloud that grounded 100,000 flights in 2010 are premature, say experts

  • Katla erupts once every 60 years on average but has been dormant for a century
  • Its neighbour Eyjafjallajokull exploded in 2010 leading to flight cancellations 
  • Scientists monitoring Katla have warned it is releasing higher levels of C0²
  • One expert says that there is no basis for comparison and more study is needed

Speculation that a giant Icelandic volcano is on the cusp of a colossal eruption are premature, according to one of the country's leading geophysicists.

Heightened activity at Katla, on the island's south coast, has led to speculation that an explosion is imminent.

The concerns stem from a research paper that publicised a huge rise in the levels of carbon dioxide (CO²) being emitted by the volcano.

Should an eruption take place, it could dwarf the ash cloud – created by neighbouring Eyjafjallajokull – that grounded 100,000 flights across Europe in 2010.

One expert has warned that there is no basis for comparison and more study is needed before such dire warnings can be issued.

And now a scientist behind the original paper has cautioned against interpreting it as suggesting Katla is about to blow.

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Reports that a giant Icelandic volcano is on the cusp of a colossal eruption are premature, according to one of the country's leading geophysicists. This  satellite image shows the Katla Volcano, situated on the south coast of Iceland near Eyjafjallajokull

Reports that a giant Icelandic volcano is on the cusp of a colossal eruption are premature, according to one of the country's leading geophysicists. This satellite image shows the Katla Volcano, situated on the south coast of Iceland near Eyjafjallajokull

Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, a professor in geophysics at the University of Iceland, posted the initial refutation of the claims on social media.

According to Guðmundsson, scientists cannot tell whether Katla’s significant CO² emissions suggest that it is about to erupt.

A lack of previous data means it is impossible to know whether the levels of the gas detected are within the normal range for the volcano, he said. 

'Even more unclear is whether these massive emissions are directly connected to an underground magma chamber, or what [Katla's] connection to the magma chamber in the volcano is,' Professor Guðmundsson wrote on his department's Facebook group.

'It's possible that Katla works as a kind of vent or exhaust channel for gasses that are emitted from magma deep under the southern part of the volcano belt.'

Evgenia Ilyinskaya, a research fellow in the Institute of Geophysics and Tectonics at Leeds University who was a co-author of the original paper, has also spoken out about the claims.

Writing on twitter, she said: 'We are in no position to say whether or not is ready to erupt.'

Some fear that if Katla (pictured) erupts, its effects would dwarf those of Eyjafjallajokull, its neighbour which exploded in 2010, leading to the cancellation of more than 100,000 flights

Some fear that if Katla (pictured) erupts, its effects would dwarf those of Eyjafjallajokull, its neighbour which exploded in 2010, leading to the cancellation of more than 100,000 flights

Since the publication of the paper last week, speculation about a potential explosion at the volcano has been steadily growing.

In the research paper, scientists warned of the build up of gases inside the volcano.

Some interpreted this as Katla showing clear signs that it's going to blow for the first time since 1918.

Katla's cone is hidden beneath a glacier on a 5,000ft (1,500m) peak, making monitoring its activity difficult.

Icelandic and British scientists used airborne measurement techniques that revealed Katla is releasing carbon dioxide on a 'huge' scale.

One of the worries is that this geological time bomb is long overdue. Historical records show that Katla erupts once every 60 years on average and has now been dormant for a century

One of the worries is that this geological time bomb is long overdue. Historical records show that Katla erupts once every 60 years on average and has now been dormant for a century

Beneath a glacier (pictured), some believe the cataclysmic giant volcano - known in local lore as the 'evil sorceress' - is stirring

Beneath a glacier (pictured), some believe the cataclysmic giant volcano - known in local lore as the 'evil sorceress' - is stirring

Despite this, it remains unclear when the volcano will blow.

Sarah Barsotti, coordinator for volcanic hazards at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, told The Sunday Times: 'There is no way of telling when it will erupt, just that it will.'

The translation of Katla is 'kettle' or 'boiler' and its 'overdue' eruption is likely to overshadow the eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in 2010.

This led to thousands of passengers being stranded as the ash plume from the volcano halted air traffic across all of Europe, with a domino effect across the world.

Ms Barsotti said the impact of the eruption on air travel 'depends on the intensity of the eruption and the direction of the winds at the time'. 

This image shows the towering ash plume from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull crater during it's eruption, spewing chunks of rock and cloud of ashes that drift toward continental Europe on May 8 2010 near Reykjavik, Iceland

This image shows the towering ash plume from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull crater during it's eruption, spewing chunks of rock and cloud of ashes that drift toward continental Europe on May 8 2010 near Reykjavik, Iceland

The concerns stem from a research paper that publicised a huge rise in the levels of carbon dioxide (CO²) being emitted by the volcano. Katla will eject a much larger ash plume than its neighbour Eyjafjallajokull, some have claimed

The concerns stem from a research paper that publicised a huge rise in the levels of carbon dioxide (CO²) being emitted by the volcano. Katla will eject a much larger ash plume than its neighbour Eyjafjallajokull, some have claimed

Eyjafjallajokull's eruption caused disruption to air travel across western and northern Europe. One expert says that there is no basis for comparison and more study is needed before such dire warnings can be issued, however

Eyjafjallajokull's eruption caused disruption to air travel across western and northern Europe. One expert says that there is no basis for comparison and more study is needed before such dire warnings can be issued, however

Iceland and volcanoes  

There are over a hundred volcanoes on the central plateau which have not erupted in the past thousand years and between 30 and 40 that are active, meaning that they have erupted within last few centuries.

On average, Iceland experiences a major volcanic event once every 5 years. Since the Middle Ages, a third of all the lava that has covered the earth's surface has erupted in Iceland. 

Iceland's most active volcano, Hekla

Iceland's most active volcano, Hekla

However, according to a recent geological hypothesis, this estimate does not include submarine eruptions, which are much more extensive than those on the land surface. 

The most famous and active volcano in Iceland is mount Hekla, which has erupted 18 times since 1104, the last time in 2000. Other active volcanoes, measured in terms of the number of eruptions besides Hekla, are Grímsvötn, Katla, Askja and Krafla. Katla, has erupted about 20 times since the settlement of Iceland.

Iceland.is 

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Dr Ilyinskaya, a research fellow in the Institute of Geophysics and Tectonics at Leeds University, said an eruption is overdue with Katla having previously erupted every 50 years on average pre-1918 when it last blew its top completely.

Ilyinskaya and her fellow scientists — whose report on the volcano was published last week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters — found that Katla was releasing between 12 and 24 kilotons of C0² every day.

Only two other volcanoes in the world are known to emit more. 

'Through high-precision airborne measurements and atmospheric dispersion modelling, we show that Katla, a highly hazardous subglacial volcano which last erupted 100 years ago, is one of the largest volcanic sources of CO² on Earth, releasing up to five per cent of total global volcanic emissions,' they wrote.

Dr Ilyinskaya told The Sunday Times that the CO² emissions from Katla were 'huge'.  

Ilyinskaya added that emissions increase well before eruptions, sometimes a matter of years, and we know this from studies on other huge volcanoes in Hawaii and Alaska.

Last week she told the Icelandic national broadcasting service that the volume of CO² ndicated significant activity that could not be explained by normal geothermal activity.

She said: 'This is a clear sign we need to keep a close eye on Katla. She isn't just doing nothing, and these findings confirm that there is something going on.'

Ilyinskaya and her team said that more studies were needed to confirm whether the amount of magma was increasing over time.

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